A positive IOD typically decreases winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia. The Bureau's climate model suggests positive IOD development is likely during late winter or early spring. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.El Niño typically increases the chance of below average winter–spring rainfall for the eastern half of Australia, as well as above average daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia. However, wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns continue to reflect an ENSO-neutral state. The Bureau's climate model suggests further warming of these SSTs is likely and SSTs will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the end of the year. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are exceeding El Niño thresholds. In the past, when we have reached El Niño Alert, events have subsequently developed around 70% of the time.
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